Since the outbreak of armed conflict in Sudan in April 2023, confrontations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have caused significant casualties, humanitarian crises, and regional instability. The capital of North Darfur, El Fasher, has long been trapped in the crossfire, with food supplies, medical services, and basic living conditions deteriorating severely. In October 2025, the city was ultimately captured by the RSF, marking a new phase in the conflict and making previously proposed ceasefire and political transition plans difficult to implement.
The Fall of El Fasher and Changes in the Battlefield
El Fasher, previously a key city in western Sudan, had been long besieged on the war front. Its fall not only altered the military landscape but also intensified the humanitarian crisis. Large numbers of civilians were forced to flee, and UN and human rights organizations have reported atrocities against civilians, as well as widespread malnutrition and signs of famine.
The Practical Challenges of Ceasefire Plans
The “Quad Alliance” (the United States, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates) had proposed a three-month humanitarian ceasefire followed by a nine-month political transition plan to end the prolonged war. However, both warring parties failed to adhere to the agreement, and fighting intensified following the fall of El Fasher, demonstrating that external mediation alone cannot bridge the fundamental divisions between the parties.
Complex Geopolitical Factors
The Sudanese conflict is not merely a domestic war but involves multi-layered regional dynamics. Neighboring countries, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have strategic interests in the Red Sea and Darfur, while the positions of different international actors toward the parties or the conflict remain ambiguous, further complicating ceasefire and mediation efforts.
Humanitarian Crisis and Governance Imbalance
The Sudanese conflict is not only a battlefield issue but also a profound humanitarian disaster: tens of thousands of civilians face famine risks, communications and aid routes are blocked, and essential services have collapsed. The United Nations, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and other agencies have confirmed that famine-like food insecurity has emerged in El Fasher and other key areas.
Policy Implications
Strengthen robust international mediation mechanisms: Existing ceasefire and political transition plans lack sufficient enforceability. More binding international mediation frameworks led by the United Nations or the African Union are needed, including clear monitoring and ceasefire enforcement mechanisms.
Enhance humanitarian response and long-term aid mechanisms: Continuous humanitarian access and sustainable aid programs must be ensured, including food, medical, and shelter support, with priority given to protecting the basic survival rights of the most vulnerable populations to prevent further famine.
Reinforce accountability and international law pressure: Strengthen support for international criminal justice investigations targeting RSF and other armed forces’ atrocities, promoting accountability mechanisms and reducing the breeding ground for war crimes through legal and normative pressure.
Integrate regional interests and diplomatic coordination: Resolving the Sudanese conflict requires going beyond the logic of domestic war, incorporating the security and interests of neighboring countries into diplomatic arrangements, and promoting a durable political solution through regional dialogue frameworks, such as the African Union and IGAD.
Tags: Sudan, Armed Conflict, Regional Security
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